Demographic Forecasting Services and RHNA Methodology

As the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the tri-county region of Monterey, San Benito and Santa Cruz counties, the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG) prepares a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) as part of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP). AMBAG also prepares and regularly updates a regional growth forecast for the tri-county region. AMBAG has issued this Request for Proposals (RFP) in an amount not to exceed $50,000 for regional growth forecast services and assistance with the development of a methodology for the Regional Housing Needs Allocation. A detailed scope of work is outlined below.

Scope of Work & Project Deliverables

The following provides details of the scope of services required under this contract. Respondents to this RFP should build on this general description by proposing a scope of work with specific sub-tasks as deemed appropriate. Respondents should also refer to the Proposal Requirements, and Evaluation and Selection Process sections for additional requirements.

Additional tasks and work elements may be added or deleted during contract negotiations. Upon conclusion of the negotiation process, the selected consultant will be required to prepare a final work plan, schedule, and budget for inclusion into a final contract. If additional tasks are identified, the contract may be amended in the future.

Task 1: Update Regional Growth Forecast (July 2019 – January 2020)

AMBAG’s current Regional Growth Forecast (RGF) estimates employment, population and housing growth through the year 2040. AMBAG will prepare updated long-term regional forecasts of employment and population for 2045 using the established methodology in the current RGF, extrapolating out from 2040 to 2045. The consultant will review and confer with AMBAG staff, providing technical guidance and adjustments as necessary based on relevant data, to ensure the accuracy and methodological defensibility of the RGF methodology, as it pertains to the AMBAG region.

The consultant will assist AMBAG in the preparation of updated estimates of employment (jobs) growth by major industry sector for the AMBAG region through the year 2045. The consultant will assist AMBAG in the preparation of a draft updated RGF report, documenting the results of the analysis, major factors and components of growth, summary tables of forecast results for employment and population, and conclusions and findings. The RGF report will also include an analysis of the relationship between regional population and employment and trends in interregional, statewide, and national growth. 

The consultant will assist AMBAG in revising the draft RGF report as necessary to address comments and assist in the preparation of a final RGF report for distribution to, and review by, AMBAG’s Board and the Planning Directors Forum.

Deliverables:

• Periodic meetings/conference calls with AMBAG staff
• Review and provide technical assistance for the updated employment, housing, and population forecasts for 2045
• Review and provide technical assistance for the Draft and Final Regional Growth Forecast Reports

Task 2: Disaggregation to a Subregional Growth Forecast (January 2020 – August 2020; ongoing)

The consultant will provide technical assistance for disaggregating the employment, housing, and population growth estimates by county and local jurisdiction as appropriate by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, in accordance with the requirements of the California Department of Housing and Community Development’s (HCD) Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) methodology. This will include adjustments to jurisdiction’s data, reviewing post-adjustment data and delivery of a technical memorandum detailing the methodology. It is expected that initial disaggregation will be conducted once the regional estimates have been established. Additional disaggregation adjustments will be needed based on local jurisdiction input and review throughout the forecast process. The final forecast is expected to be adopted in June 2022.

Deliverables:

• Periodic meetings/conference calls with AMBAG staff
• Adjustments to county and local jurisdiction forecasts
• Final technical memorandum detailing the methodology adjustments

Task 3: Regional Housing Needs Allocation Methodology (July 2020 – September 2021; ongoing)

The consultant will provide technical assistance in developing and selecting a preferred RHNA methodology. This will include preparation of a jurisdiction survey, adjustments to jurisdiction’s data, reviewing post-adjustment data and delivery of a technical memorandum detailing the RHNA methodology. Additional adjustments will be needed based on local jurisdiction input and review throughout the forecast process. The consultant may assist with the development of the RHNA Plan included submittal to HCD. The RHNA Plan is expected to be adopted in June 2022.

Deliverables:

• Periodic meetings/conference calls with AMBAG and/or HCD staff
• Adjustments to county and local jurisdiction RHNA allocation
• Final technical memorandum detailing the RHNA methodology
• Draft and Final RHNA Plan assistance (as needed)

Schedule

Task

Completion Date

Release RFP

January 31, 2019

Questions Due

February 20, 2019

Post responses to questions/addendum (as needed)

February 26, 2019

Proposals Due

March 18, 2019

Evaluation Committee Completes Proposal Review

March 28, 2019

Consultant Selection and Notice of Intent

April 2, 2019

Candidates Not Recommended for Selection Notified

April 2, 2019

Notice of Intent to Protest Deadline

April 5, 2019

AMBAG Board Approval of Consultant

April 10, 2019

Execute Contract

April 30, 2019

Project Kick Off Meeting

May 2019

Proposal Submittal

Interested consultants must submit a digital copy of the proposal to the Project Manager as follows:

Digital: Send as a single PDF or PDF portfolio

All submissions must be received by AMBAG on or before March 18, 2019 at 4:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT). By submitting a proposal, the Proposer certifies that his or her name or the consultant firm's name, as well as the name of Proposer’s subcontractors, does not appear on the Comptroller General's list of ineligible contractors for federally assisted projects.

Until award of the contract, the proposals shall be held in confidence and shall not be available for public review. Upon award of a contract to the successful Proposer, all proposals shall become public record. No proposal shall be returned after the date and time set for opening thereof.

Submittal Questions and Addenda 

All questions regarding this RFP should be received no later than February 20, 2019 at 4:00 p.m. Pacific Standard Time (PST) by e-mail to Sean Vienna at [email protected] or by fax to (831) 883-3755. Responses that require that an addendum be issued to the RFP will be posted on the AMBAG website at www.ambag.org on or before February 26, 2019 at 4:00 p.m. PST. It is the responsibility of proposers to check the AMBAG website to determine if any addenda have been issued. Any addenda to the RFP will become part of the RFP.

AMBAG reserves the right to revise the RFP prior to the date that proposals are due. It is the responsibility of proposers to check the AMBAG website to determine if a modified RFP has been issued. 

Notice of Award

The final recommended consultant shall be informed by phone and confirmed in writing or in an email on or before April 2, 2019. Candidates not recommended for contract award shall be informed by April 2, 2019.

Project Manager

Sean Vienna, Planner

Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments

24580 Silver Cloud Court, Monterey, CA 93940

Email | [email protected] (preferred communication)

Phone | 831.883.3750

Fax | 831.883.3755